气候变化对水文水资源影响的研究进展

气候变化成为21 世纪世界最重大的环境问题之一，愈来愈引起国际社会和各国政府的重视和关注。研究 气候变化对水文水资源的影响，对于理解和解决可能引起的与工业、农业、城市发展等经济领域密切相关的水文水 资源系统的规划管理、开发利用、运行管理、环境保护、生态平衡等问题具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文主要 从研究方法、气候变化情景的生成技术、与水文模型接口技术和水文模拟技术等几个方面综合概述了气候变化对 水文水资源的影响，同时提出存在的问题与展望。

Progr ess in Study of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resour ces

Climate change has become one of the most significant environmental problems of the world in the 21st century, and it attracts more and more attention of international communities and governments. It has theoretical and realistic meanings to study the climate change's impacts on hydrology and water resources, so as to understand and solve some problems in hydrology and water resources, such as plan management, operation management, environmental protection, ecological balance and so on. And hydrology and water resource system has close relationship with industry, agriculture, city development and economic fields. This paper reviews the study of impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources at home and abroad, and then summarizes some study methods of analyzing the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources, such as generation technology for climate change scenario, interface technology with hydrologic models, and hydrologic simulation. At last, it raises problems in study and puts forward some suggestions, including improving the precision of climate models and hydrologic models and searching for forecast methods that can be applied to basins of different scales.