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| Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M_S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction | |
| 作者姓名： | 刘蒲雄 郑大林 车时 潘怀文 刘桂萍 杨立明 |
| 作者单位： | CenterforAnalysisandPrediction，ChinaSeismologicalBureau，CenterforAnalysisandPrediction，ChinaSeismologicalBureau，ChinaSeismologicalBureau，ChinaSeismologicalBureau，ChinaSeismologicalBureau，LanzhouInstituteofSeismology，ChinaSeismologicalBureau Beijing100036，China，Beijing100036，China，Beijing100036，China，Beijing100036，China，Beijing100036，China，Lanzhou730000，China |
| 摘 要： | Introduction The MS=8.1 earthquake occurred in west of the Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. It is the greatest earthquake occurred in China since the last half of the century and is an important event in recent seismic history of China. Some specialists consider that the earthquake occurred in the area where the earthquake monitoring capability is lowest in Chinese mainland; no striking precursory seismicity was found. The study on the precursory seismicity before the earthquake has not b… |
Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of MS=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction |
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| LIU Pu-xiong ZHENG Da-lin CHE Shi PAN Huai-wen LIU Gui-ping YANG Li-ming Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Seismological Bureau,Beijing ,China China Seismological Bureau,Beijing ,China Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,China Seismological Bureau,Lanzhou ,China.Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M_S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2003,16(2). | |
| Authors: | LIU Pu-xiong ZHENG Da-lin CHE Shi PAN Huai-wen LIU Gui-ping YANG Li-ming Center for Analysis and Prediction China Seismological Bureau Beijing China China Seismological Bureau Beijing China Lanzhou Institute of Seismology China Seismological Bureau Lanzhou China |
| Institution: | 1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036, China 2. China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036, China 3. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Seismological Bureau, Lanzhou 730000, China |
| Abstract: | A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is lo-cated at 36.2N and 90.9E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the lar-ger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and fore-casting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes. |
| Keywords: | seismicity earthquake prediction great Kunlun Pass earthquake of MS=8 1 |
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