泥石流成因机理的非饱和土力学理论研究

泥石流是一种具有较强破坏力的自然山地灾害。对于它的预报研究历来为人们所重视，并建立了很多雨量预报模型。然而，这些雨量预报模型的预报时间很短，往往只能在灾害发生前几十分钟作出预报。论文应用非饱和土强度理论对降雨型泥石漉的成园机理进行了研究，提出降雨型泥石流的形成过程可以划分为2个阶段：第一个阶段与前期实效降雨量有关；第二个阶段与短历时强降雨有关。并对各个阶段降雨作用机理以及固体松散物质的力学性质变化特征进行探讨。为预先判断在降雨条件下，会不会发生泥石流以及所需要的降雨量和雨型提供依据。

Study on genetic and mechanical analysis of debris flow based on unsaturated soils mechanics

The debris flow is a kind of natural disaster with strong destructive power in mountain ground.People emphasize the study of forecasting debris flow at all times,and have established a lot of forecasting models according to the amount of precipitation.However,the leading time of the forecasting by these models is very short,prewarning is usually made in several ten\|minutes before the debris flow generating.In this paper,the genetic and mechanical analysis of debris flow due to rainfall is researched,according to theory of unsaturated soil mechanics.The formation of debris flow due to rainfall can be divided into two stages:the first stage is related with antecedent effective precipitation,and the second stage is related with heavy precipitation at short time.Mechanical analysis of rainfall effects and the changing pattern of the mechanical property of solid loose material at each stage are studied in this paper.The criterion of generating debris flows under rainfall and type and amount requested of precipitation for long\|time prewarning before debris flows generating are provided.