西北太平洋热带气旋路径的历史模拟

基于IBTrACS提供的热带气旋最佳路径数据集，在统计分析历史热带气旋的发生年频次、发生位置、路径移动及强度变化等的基础上，建立了西北太平洋热带气旋轨迹合成模型。模型包括生成模型、移动模型、消亡模型及强度模型4个部分，并从地理轨迹密度、年登陆率、登陆风速分布三个方面，对模拟的气旋路径与历史气旋路径进行比较，以验证模型的准确性和可靠性。结果表明，构建的西北太平洋热带气旋全路径统计模拟模型稳健可靠，可进一步应用于研究区热带气旋的定量精细化的风险评估，能提高气旋风险灾害评估的可信度。

Historical simulation of tropical cyclone tracks in Northwest Pacific

Northwest Pacific is the most active area for tropical cyclones(TCs).Intensified TCs usually cause natural disasters, leading to tremendous losses in life and property.Statistical analyses of the historical records of tropical cyclones are crucial to the risk assessment of TCs.However, current historical records of TCs are out of the requirement of a refined risk assessment in coastal area.In this study, the climatic properties (including annual frequency, location, path movement and intensity change, etc.) of TCs derived from the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS) database have been analyzed, and a synthetic model of the TC tracks over Northwest Pacific has been developed.The model includes four parts:genesis model, movement model, lysis model and intensity model.The model is evaluated by comparing an ensemble of simulations to the historical records from the perspective of spatial track density, annual landfall rate and frequency distribution of maximum landfall wind speed.Results show that the model performs well according to a few of diagnostics, and the simulations and observations are statistically indistinguishable.Therefore, the model can be used to generate synthetic tropical cyclones for a refined risk assessment of TCs over Northwest Pacific, and can improve the reliability of cyclone risk disaster assessment.