地震灾害宏观分析研究*

运用对致灾因素及灾害发生机制的已有认识,根据50个历史的典型震例,建立地震烈度、人口密度、单位面积工农业产值等因素与反映灾害程度的人员伤亡、经济损失的估算模型;以减少灾害研究对历史资料的依赖.用两个历史震例检验模型,结果其精度满足宏观分析的要求.

A STUDY ON THE MACROSCOPIC ANALYSIS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

Based on the study of genetic mechanism of earthquake disaster,the seismic intensity,population density ,per unit area total product values of industry and agriculture were selecteas the indicative factors. According to the date from the 50 earthquake examples,a regres-sion equation among the personal injury,economic loss and above factors have been estab-lished, which is used for the macroscopic evaluation of regional earthquake disasters. In thetests by using it in the other two seismic samples,the results can satisfy the requirements formacroscopic analyses. It proves that the method can reduce the dependence upon the histori-cal information about earthquake disasters,and promote the depth and accuracy of the re-search on disastrous regional differentiations.