What explains agricultural performance: climate normals or climate variance? |
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Authors: | Robert Mendelsohn Alan Basist Ariel Dinar Pradeep Kurukulasuriya Claude Williams |
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Institution: | (1) Yale FES, 230 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA;(2) Commodity Hedgers Inc, 1 Heather Downs, Alexander, NC 28700, USA;(3) World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA;(4) Yale FES, 210 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA;(5) National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patten Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, USA |
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Abstract: | This paper measures the influence of climate normals (average long-term surface wetness and temperature) and interannual climate
variance on farms in the United States and Brazil using satellite data. The paper finds that just climate normals or just
climate variance variables can explain both net revenues and how much land is used for cropland. However, because they are
correlated with each other, it is important to include both normals and variance in the same statistical model to get accurate
measures of their individual contribution to farm outcomes. In general, higher climate variance increases the probability
that land is used for cropland in both countries and higher temperatures reduce both cropland and land values. Other annual
effects were not consistent across the two countries. |
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