中国生产性服务业产业关联效应分析

以中国1997年、2002年投入产出数据为基础,运用投入产出法,对中国生产性服务业的产业关联效应进行分析.研究结果表明:中国生产性服务业发展速度明显加快,在国民经济中的地位逐步上升;生产性服务业主要为第二产业服务,对第三产业的支撑、引领作用不足;第二产业(尤其是制造业)对生产性服务业的中间需求比重趋于下降,而投入到第三产业的中间服务不断上升;制造业对生产性服务业的中间需求集中在批发和零售贸易业、交通运输及仓储业这两个传统服务业,制造业生产过程对中间投入服务的消耗层次偏低;生产性服务业普遍具有"低附加值、高带动能力"的产业特性,对国民经济的推动作用普遍大于各行业受其他部门的需求拉动作用,但与国民经济其他部门的后向关联效应较弱,对国民经济的乘数推动作用不强;商务服务业具有很强的前后向关联效应,发展潜力巨大.

Industry Relevancy Analysis of Producer Services in China

In a flexible and information-oriented economy, producer services, used as intermediate inputs for the production of other goods or services, plays a key role in expanding division of labor, increasing productivity and inducing regional economic development. Based on the input-output tables of China in 1997 and 2002, the study applied the input-output method to industry relevancy analysis of producer services in China. The following conclusions were drawn. Firstly, the growth of producer services speeded up evidently from 1997 to 2002. The output of producer services was consumed by manufacturing industries leadingly, matching to the current situation that manufacturing industries took a dominant position in national economy. Because of feeble impulse to the development of tertiary industry by producer services, final use, but not intermediate use, drove basically the growth of tertiary industry nowadays. Secondly, the part consumed by manufacturing industries focused on conventional services, wholesale and retail trade services, transport and storage, rather than knowledge-intensive and technology-intensive services, reflecting the inferior consumption structure of manufacturing sector. Nevertheless, with the drop of intermediate use by manufacturing sector, the part consumed of intermediate use by services sector ascended from 1997 to 2002, which reflected the upgrade of producer services. Thirdly, according to the intermediate demand rate and intermediate input rate, most industries in producer services promoted the development of national economy markedly, in despite of low value added. Finally, owing to the remarkable forward effect and backward effect, special attention should be paid to boosting the growth of business services.