地震经济损失预测和人员伤亡预测

以山西G市为例，通过对该市建筑物造价、建筑物室内财产、各乡镇经济收入、县乡企业经济等情况进行的调查，对该市进行了直接和间接经济损失预测，从而给出总经济损失预测结果。在建筑物震害预测的基础上，给出不同破坏烈度下预测区的死亡人数、无家可归人数的预测结果，指出预测未来地震灾害的经济损失和人员伤亡是把握当今社会经济布局和未来灾害损失程度、科学制定防震减灾对策的重要环节之一。

The Prediction of the Economic Loss and Casualty due to Earthquake

Taking G city of Shanxi province as an example,the direct and indirect economic loss prediction of the city are carried out and the total economic loss by the prediction is given through the investigation for the cost of the buildings,the indoor property of the buildings,the economic revenue of every villages and towns and the economy of the township businesses.Based on the seismic disaster prediction for the buildings,the prediction results of the people died and homeless people in different destructive intensity areas are given also.The paper suggests that prediction for the economic loss and casualty of the future earthquake disaster is one of the important links to grasp the social economic layout and the future economic loss level and to make the earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction measurement.