重庆市山体滑坡发生的降水条件分析

本文通过对重庆自70年代以来覆盖全市的153个山体滑坡个体进行与降水相关的统计分析，得出重庆市山体滑坡与降水的基本关系。从而为开展重庆市的山体滑坡预报业务打下基础，并得出了开展山体滑坡气象条件等级预报的基本方案。

Relationship between the Slope Slides and Precipitation in Chongqing

A correlation statistical analysis has done for 153 slope slides and their corrlative precipitation in Chongqing since 1970s.The results is as follows:1. Precipitation is the primary triggering factor to slope slides, and the probability of slope slides is 96.7%.2. As 24-hour-precipitation and accumulative total precipitation are triggers, we should think over their effects synthetically when we have forecast of slope slides. We will put out forecast when 24-hour-precipitation exceeds 10mm and accumulative total precipitation exceeds 20mm, it sums up 97.2% of slope slides. But day-precipitation is main action to give rise to group slope slides.3. Slope slides will take place when big-precipitation happened after 3 days (contain 3 day), it sums up 83% of slope slides. But when 24-hour-precipitation exceeds 110mm, most of coasts will take place this day or the second day.4.We only can educe that big-precipitation is not sufficient condition of slope slides but necessary condition of slope slides, because we can not collect all slope slides information of Chongqing. These conclusions have had base for developing slope slides forecast of Chongqing, and we have given elementary scenario of developing weather condition grade forecast of slope slides.