巴颜喀拉块体东部及邻区块体边界断裂变形特征及其强震危险性分析

在对巴颜喀拉块体东部及其邻区活动块体划分的基础上,基于刚性块体运动模型,利用1999—2007年GPS数据反演得到巴颜喀拉块体东部及邻区活动块体边界断裂带的长期滑动速率,并且利用一维弹性位错模型反演了各活动块体边界断裂的闭锁深度。根据反演得到的滑动速率和闭锁深度,结合GIS平台上获取的各边界断裂的几何长度得到各边界断裂的主要地震矩累积,并通过对比各断裂带上历史强震目录估算的地震矩释放分析各边界断裂带上的地震矩亏损量,进而分析各活动块体边界断裂的强震背景,以期为区域强震的中长期地震危险性分析和防震减灾策略的制定提供资料。

Sesimic Risk and Deformation Characteristics of the Boundary Faults in the Eastern Bayan Har Block and Its Adjacent Regions

Based on the divsion of subblocks in and around the Bayan Har block, we use the rigid block theory constrained by geodetic observations from GPS stations to estimate the boundary fault slip rates and use the one-dimensional elastic dislocation model to calculate the locking depth. According to the boundary fault slip rates and locking depths, combined with the length of the boundary fault got from GIS platform, and joined with the cataclog of large earthquakes along the boundary fault, we estimate the seismic dificit, and then analysize the earthquake background. It maybe helpful for the moderate and long-term large earthquake risk estimation and the formulation of strategies for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.