东亚和南亚夏季风对中国季风区径流深影响

为揭示中国东部季风区径流深对东亚和南亚夏季风变化的响应规律,建立了八大流域VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)水文模型以及应用了Mann-Kendall和局部加权回归分析(Locally Weighted Scatter Plot Smoothing, LOWESS)相关性检验方法,并分析了径流深系数空间变化情况。结果表明:东亚夏季风与径流深显著性相关范围要明显大于南亚夏季风,主要位于长江流域以北和松花江流域以南的广大地区以及华南部分地区,并分别成正相关和负相关;而南亚夏季风与径流深显著性正负相关的区域则分别位于华南地区及长江流域上游部分地区。此外,季风区径流深系数空间差异明显,易产流区主要位于长江流域及东南沿海地区,而黄河及海河流域则产流较难。因此,对东亚及南亚夏季风的研究可为预测中国东部不同地区的水文过程及水资源变化提供重要的科学参考。

Influence of East and South Asian summer monsoons on runoff in the monsoon region of East China

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Mann-Kendall with LOWESS test are employed to evaluate the influence of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) on runoff in the monsoon region of East China. The spatial variation of runoff coefficients in the region is also examined. The results indicate that the EASM-influenced area is much larger than the SASM-influenced area. EASM shows positive relationships with runoff in most area between Yangtze River and Songhua River, while negative EASM-runoff relationships are found in partial area of the South China. SASM shows positive and negative relationships with runoff in South China and partial areas of the upper Yangtze River basin, respectively. Moreover, the results indicate remarkable spatial disparities in runoff coefficients: it is a larger value for the Southeast Coast and the Yangtze River basin, and lower for the Yellow River and Haihe River basins. Understanding the relationships between EASM/SASM and the runoff has important implications in predicting the hydrologic change and water resources management in East China.