甘肃河西石羊河流域出山径流分析及来水预测

径流量是水资源规划、利用、管理、调度的重要依据。根据石羊河流域的实测径流资料统计分析得到：流域地表水资源量为15.52×10⁸ m³；流域各代表站出山径流的C_V值在0.15~0.35之间，年极值比在1.77~14.20之间，呈现出从西向东逐渐增大的空间分布特性。运用加法模型对石羊河流域径流量进行预测，结果表明未来4年内为丰水年。

Mountainous runoff analysis and inflow forecast of the Shiyang River basin

Runoff is an important basis for water resources planning, utilization, management and scheduling. According to the actual hydrological runoff data in the Shiyang River basin by investigation and measurement, surface water resources in the basin are calculated as 1.552 billion m³. The mountainous runoff characteristic values of every representative stations and typical annual runoff in the basin are statistical analyzed. It is found that the river runoff C_V value is ranging from 0.15 to 0.35 and annual extreme value ratio is between 1.77-14.20, with a spatial distribution characteristic of gradual increasing from west to east obviously. The additive model is applied to predict inflow of the Shiyang River basin, resulting that the basin will be in high flow over the next four years.