近30年来耕地养老保障功能的时空演变及政策启示

厘清耕地养老保障功能的时空演变,为新时代农村土地保障功能提供科学判断。把拥有承包权的耕地看作农户的一项资产,利用1986—2015年农村固定观察点中近61万份农户资料,分别从全国和省级尺度揭示耕地养老保障功能的演变规律,为完善农村养老保障体系提供参考。结果显示：按1986年不变价,全国层面上,人均耕地养老保障价值从550元/年降至150元/年,研究期内降幅达到72%。20世纪80年代,农民依靠承包耕地能够满足家庭老年居民的养老支出;1994年其价值已无法支撑老年居民消费,此后养老需求的缺口不断扩大。省际层面上,研究期内各省份耕地的养老保障价值均呈现下降趋势,且省际间存在明显差异;养老需求的缺口不断扩大,其中东南沿海、长江沿线地区尤为突出。耕地养老假说已失去其基本论据,依靠耕地无法满足农村老年居民的养老支出。农村养老保障必须建立在公共社会保障体系的基础上,而不能再指望农户家庭拥有的少量耕地,政府应加强农村养老服务的建设。

Spatiotemporal evolution of the old-age security function of cultivated land assets for Chinese farmers in the past 30 years and its policy implications

How reliable are cultivated land assets as old-age security for Chinese farmers is a scientific issue that needs to be urgently solved in the research field of land use change and rural pension system. To give a scientific judgment on the function of cultivated land as old-age security in the new era and provide a reference for improving the rural old-age security system, this paper regards the cultivated land with the contracting right as an asset for farm households, and systematically reveals the spatiotemporal evolution in the old-age security function of cultivated land asset from the national and provincial levels based on large-scale household survey data from the Rural Permanent Observation Sites (RPOS) conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture from 1986 to 2015. The results show that: (1) At the national level, compared with the constant price of 1986, the value of old-age security per capita cultivated land has dropped from 550 yuan to 150 yuan in the past 30 years, and the decline rate reached 72% during the study period. In the 1980s, cultivated land assets could meet the old-age expenditures of the elderly; but after 1994, the value of cultivated land as old-age security could not support the consumption of the elderly, and the gap in the demand for old-age security continued to expand. (2) At the interprovincial level, the value of cultivated land as the old-age security in all provincial-level regions was in a downward trend during the study period, and there were significant differences among provinces. In recent years, the contribution rate of the old-age security to the demand for old-age care has been declining, and the gap in the demand for old-age care has been expanding. The provinces along the Southeast Coast and the Yangtze River are the most prominent. Nowadays, cultivated land contract that began in the 1980s has lost its basic arguments, and the theory on social protection of cultivated land needs to be re-examined. The old-age consumption of rural residents can no longer count on a small amount of cultivated land with contracting rights for farmers and the old-age security must be built on the public pension security system. The government should focus on strengthening the capacity of rural old-age services.