撤县设区与区域经济发展——基于双重差分方法的政策评估

撤县设区作为行政区划调整的一项政策措施,对于缓解土地资源紧张、推动城市化进程、加快经济一体化方面具有重要意义,但其对区域经济发展的多维影响及其机制还有待进一步验证。以广东省为研究区域,利用79个县（市）2000—2015年的面板数据,运用双重差分方法系统考察撤县设区对区域经济发展的“净”影响。结果表明：撤县设区显著促进了区域经济发展,平均而言,撤县设区对经济发展的贡献为4.8%;撤县设区在珠三角地区效果更好,而在非珠三角地区不稳定;撤县设区的政策红利具有时间滞后性,一般在第三、第四年才开始显现;此外,机制分析发现,撤县设区后能够获得基建、规划、政策等的有力支持,增加财政收入和固定资产投资,有助于第二产业及其相关产业发展,并在增加就业和刺激消费基础上着力推动经济发展。

Turning county into district and regional economic growth: Policy evaluation based on difference-in-difference method

Turning counties into districts (TCID) is a policy of administrative division adjustment in order to alleviate the strain on land resources, promote urbanization and speed up regional economic integration. But its multidimensional impact on regional economy and its mechanism remains to be further investigated and verified. Therefore, under the help of Difference-in-Difference Method, the paper takes Guangdong province as the research area and uses the panel data of 79 counties (cities) from 2000 to 2015 to analyze and solve the above problems. The results show that: TCID significantly promotes the regional economic growth. Generally, its contribution to the regional economic growth rate was 0.48%; the policy effect performed better in the Pearl River Delta and less stably in other regions. The embodiment of policy dividend has time lag, and generally and emerges in the third or four year. In addition, TCID can get the infrastructure, planning, policies and other strong support. Meanwhile, increasing financial revenue and investment in fixed assets helps the development of secondary industries and related industries. Finally, it is effective to promote regional economic growth by raising employment rates and stimulating consumption. The policy recommendations of this article aim to, with the opportunity to reform the administrative system, organically combine the development of industry with the service industry, especially the productive service industry, speed up the optimization and upgrading of the local industrial structure so as to promote the sustained, healthy and rapid development of the regional economy.