黄土高原乡村体制转换与转型发展

农户生计方式的改变对研究黄土高原乡村转型发展具有重要意义。以黄土高原苹果优生区的彬县、长武县和旬邑县为研究区,从体制转换的视角出发,基于模糊层次分析、地理探测器和多元线性回归等算法,模拟乡村体制演化的路径,甄别影响乡村转型发展的微观要素,进一步揭示农户家庭体制转换与乡村转型发展之间的互馈机理。研究发现：① 在研究区内抽样选择的130个乡村中,传统农业体制型乡村共有27个,主要分布于黄土梁地貌类型区,新型农业体制型乡村共有96个,主要分布于黄土塬地貌类型区,非农体制型乡村共有7个,主要分布于河谷地貌类型区;② 当乡村地域系统由传统农业型体制向新型农业型体制转变,再至非农型体制的演化路径中,乡村转型发展度在三维空间坐标系中为倒“U”型变化趋势,乡村人口发展度在二维坐标系中表现为下凸递增趋势,乡村经济发展度在二维坐标系中表现为上凸递增趋势,农业经济发展度在二维坐标系中表现为倒“U”型发展趋势;③ 生计方式成为衔接农户家庭体制转换与乡村转型发展的控制性因素,在农户尺度上,由人力资本与自然资本决定,并直接影响到金融资本和物质资本,在村域尺度上,通过与乡村地域系统的人口、经济和农业等3个维度的响应,引导乡村转型发展过程。

Rural regime shifts and transformation development on the Loess Plateau

It is important to study rural transformation and development from the perspective of farmers' livelihood regime changes on the Loess Plateau. We selected cunties of Binxian, Changwu and Xunyi located in the apple growing area of the Loess Plateau, as a case study to construct the evolutionary path of rural regime, identify the micro factors that affect rural transformation and development, and reveal the mutual feedback mechanism between farmers' household regime and rural transformation. In doing so we adopted a regime change perspective, and applied the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, geodetector, and multiple linear regression. We obtained the following three findings. First, 27 of 130 selected samples, distributed mainly in areas with loess girder topography, belonged to the traditional agricultural regime. Meanwhile, 96 samples, distributed mainly in areas with loess tableland topography, belonged to the new agricultural regime. Another 7 samples, mainly distributed in valley areas, belonged to the non-agricultural regime. Second, when rural transformation sees the traditional agricultural regime replaced by the new agricultural regime, and finally the non-agricultural regime, the overall performance of rural development follows an inverted U-type development trend in a 3D space coordinate system. Simultaneously, rural population development follows an upward convex development trend in a 2D space coordinate system. Meanwhile, rural economic development follows an upward concave development trend, and agricultural production development follows an inverted U-type development trend, both in 2D space coordinate systems. Third, means of livelihood is the control variable that connects family system transformation and rural transformation development, which are determined by human and natural capital and directly affect financial and material capital at the farmer level. These aspects of transformation development are guided by the response process at the village level of three dimensions, namely population, economy and agriculture, and lead the process of rural transformation and development.