中国城市土地城镇化多层级影响因素分析

土地城镇化是地理学与土地科学交叉的核心研究领域。随着中国城镇化水平不断提升,土地城镇化作为城镇化在空间的具体体现,已经成为学者和政府共同关注的焦点。土地城镇化受到省、市多层面因素影响,单一层面的影响因素并不能完全有效解释中国特殊行政体系下的多层级关系。本文采用熵值法对中国省、市两个层面影响因素的不同指标进行客观赋权,建立两层线性模型,对2005年和2016年全国102个具有代表性的城市土地城镇化影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明：① 市级层面,2005年要素投入和公共服务是影响城市土地城镇化的主要因素,其中以要素投入最重要。2016年经济发展水平成为最关键的影响因素,要素投入、公共服务、人口集聚对土地城镇化的影响程度依次降低。② 省级层面,区域经济发展水平差异是土地城镇化的主要影响因素。政府资源保护态度、生态和农业资源与市级因素以及城市建成区面积呈显著负相关。根据区域所处发展水平的不同,政府开发态度、地理区位与市级因素存在复杂的影响关系。③ 1978年改革开放以来,中国土地城镇化是工业化和城镇化共同作用的结果,土地城镇化进程逐步由政府主导转向经济驱动。多层级土地城镇化研究,可以更好地解析不同层面影响因素对土地城镇化水平影响机制和跨级关系,为更合理精准的城镇化政策制定提供理论依据。

An analysis of multilevel variables influencing China's land urbanization process

In recent years, land urbanization, as a spatial manifestation of China's expanding urbanization, has emerged as a core research field within urban geography and land science. Provincial administrative departments within China's distinctive administrative system significantly influence municipal administrative departments and urbanization levels. Individual-level influencing factors cannot fully explain the Chinese mode of urbanization. Therefore, a multilevel linear model was developed to identify factors influencing China's land urbanization process. The results indicated that in 2005, factor inputs, in particular, and public service critically influenced land urbanization in municipal urban areas. By 2016, economic development levels had superseded factor inputs, public service, and population agglomeration as the key influencing factor. At the provincial level, differences in economic development levels critically influenced land urbanization. The provincial government's prioritization of ecological and agricultural resource conservation had a significant negative impact on city-level factors and urban built-up areas. The relationship between the government's developmental attitude, geographical locations, and city-level factors was complex and varied according to regional development levels. A further finding was that since China's reform and opening-up policy was initiated in 1978, land urbanization has been driven by industrialization and urbanization, gradually shifting from government-led to economy-driven stage. Thus, a multilevel study of land urbanization reveals mechanisms and cross-level relationships among different factors that influence levels of land urbanization. Moreover, it provides a theoretical basis for rational policy formulation.