阜新市收缩城市经济系统弹性演变趋势与障碍因素分析

运用集对分析和弹性评估相结合的研究方法，以东北收缩城市阜新市为例，分析1997—2016年阜新市城市经济系统弹性变化趋势及障碍因素，并提出相应的对策建议。研究表明：阜新市经济系统弹性指数在1997—2016年总体呈现平稳增长态势，弹性值大体在0.30~0.45区间波动，这说明阜新市经济系统处于中等偏低弹性状态，经济发展整体态势较稳定；同时运用回归分析法研判阜新市经济系统的脆弱性、适应性、恢复性与弹性之间的关系，结果表明恢复性对阜新市经济系统弹性的影响居于主导地位；进一步对城市经济系统恢复性的“障碍度”分析表明，产业结构合理化程度、经济集约化程度及经济外向性是恢复性提升的主要因子。据此建议阜新市通过优化发展能源产业，提升科技创新能力，提高经济外向性，推进节能降耗和循环经济发展，努力促进绿色转型等措施提高经济恢复性，实现不断增强阜新市经济系统弹性能力的目标。

Obstacle Factors and Evolution of Urban Economic Resilience of Fuxin Shrinking City and Its Obstacle Factors

Taking a typical shrinking city as an example, this article analyzes the changing trend and obstacles of the resilience of Fuxin’s urban economic system in 1997-2016 based on set pair analysis and resilience assessment. And the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward by combining the aspects of resilience and response capacity. On the whole, the results indicate that resilience shows a growing trend in urban economic system of Fuxin city during the past 20 years, and the resilience fluctuates from 0.30 to 0.45. It presents a state of medium and low resilience, and a generally stable situation. The influence of recoverability on the resilience is significant in urban economic system of Fuxin city among the vulnerability, adaptability, recoverability and resilience by using regression analysis. The results of obstacle analysis indicate that rational structure of production, economic intensification and export-orientated level of economy are the most important factors affecting the regional resilience degree. It is suggested that, to improve response capacity in urban economic system of Fuxin city, we should optimize the development of energy industry, enhance the scientific and technological innovating capacity, improve economic extroversion and develop circular economy, as well as promote energy conservation and consumption reduction to realize green transition.