中国城市高温特征及社会脆弱性评价

极端高温对人类健康与城市社会发展影响显著,如何衡量城市高温特征及其社会后果是地理学人地关系研究的新命题。将社会脆弱性分析工具应用到该命题研究中,以中国296个城市为研究对象,采集各城市日最高气温数据、社会经济统计数据和人口普查数据,建立了高温日数、高温强度、热浪频次、热浪持续时间和热浪强度等表征城市高温特征的量化指标,对1960—2016年中国主要城市高温特征进行了系统分析;基于城市高温社会脆弱性分析框架,从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个维度构建中国城市高温社会脆弱性评价指标体系,并开展社会脆弱性评价,划分社会脆弱性等级,分析城市社会脆弱性致脆原因。结果表明：① 中国极端高温和热浪事件的分布主要集中在南方城市,尤其是在华东和华中地区,尽管北方城市高温热浪事件较少,但高温强度较为突出。② 中国城市高温暴露度指数具有明显的空间集聚特征,而各城市的敏感性指数和适应能力指数分布较为分散。③ 中国高社会脆弱性指数城市主要集中在华东和华中大部分地区,以及西南和华北少部分地区;高、中、低社会脆弱性指数城市比例分别为25.3%、46.3%和28.4%。④ 社会敏感致脆型城市数量最多（46.9%）,其次为高温暴露致脆型（44.3%）,适应能力不足致脆型城市数量最少（8.8%）,在高社会脆弱性城市中,暴露度指数贡献度最大,中、低社会脆弱性城市中敏感性指数贡献度最大,适应能力指数对城市高温社会脆弱性的贡献度较小。本研究可在灾害-社会关系研究、城市高温特征的量化表达与高温社会脆弱性评价等方面提供借鉴和启示。

Characteristics of urban extreme heat and assessment of social vulnerability in China

Human health and social development are significantly affected by urban extreme heat. It is a new proposition for human-land relationship in the field of geography to measure the characteristics and social consequences of urban extreme heat. Applying the tool of social vulnerability to studies of urban extreme heat, this paper takes 296 cities in China as research objects and establishes quantitative indicators of urban extreme heat such as high temperature days, high temperature intensity, heat wave frequency, heat wave duration and heat wave intensity. By using daily maximum temperature data, urban statistics and census data, we systematically analyze the characteristics of urban extreme heat. Meanwhile, we construct a framework for urban social vulnerability to extreme heat and based on this framework, we developed a common evaluation index system of social vulnerability according to the three dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Finally, we conduct social vulnerability assessments for the 296 cities, classify social vulnerability levels, and analyze the causes of urban social vulnerability. The results are shown as follows. (1) The extreme heat events are mainly concentrated in southern cities, especially in the eastern and central parts of the country. Although there are fewer extreme heat events in northern cities, the intensity of high temperature is more prominent. (2) The urban exposure index to extreme heat in China has obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics, while the sensitivity index and adaptability index are scattered. (3) Cities with high social vulnerability index are mainly concentrated in most areas of East and Central China, and in a few areas of Southwest and North China. The proportion of cities with high, middle and low social vulnerability index was 25.3%, 46.3% and 28.4%, respectively. (4) The number of social sensitive cities is the largest, followed by high temperature exposure cities, and the number of insufficient adaptability cities is the smallest. In addition, exposure index contributes the most in cities with high social vulnerability index, and sensitivity index contributes the most in cities with middle and low social vulnerability indexes. This study can provide reference and enlightenment for relationship research between disaster and society, quantitative expression of characteristics of urban extreme heat and assessment of social vulnerability to extreme heat.