中国大城市病典型症状诱发因素的实证分析

论文基于已有研究将大城市病细分为交通拥堵、资源短缺、环境污染3种典型症状,采用2013年全国204个地级市横截面数据,根据夜间灯光数据构建人口空间分布指标,首先运用OLS回归探讨城市规模、空间失衡、建设滞后、产业转型、体制弊病等5种主要致病因素对大城市病的影响;其次,建立门槛效应模型进一步考察不同因素与大城市病之间是否存在非线性关系。实证研究结果表明,大城市病作为一种“综合病”,具体到不同层面对应的主要致病因素也大相径庭。其中,城市总体规模较大、城区人口过度集中分布、交通基础设施不够完善等是造成交通拥堵的主要原因;大城市中并不普遍存在资源匮乏的问题,相反地,产业结构的改善、公共服务的增加、行政权力的集中均有助于吸引和调动资源;此外,不论是城区人口总量的增加,还是分布结构的集中化,均显著不利于消除环境污染,并且非农产业比重的上升和城市道路面积的扩张也会对城市生态环境系统造成破坏。

An empirical analysis of factors leading to typical urban problems in China

Based on the results of existing research, typical urban problems can be divided into three categories-traffic congestion, resources shortage, and environmental pollution. This study used cross-section data of 204 Chinese prefecture-level cities in 2013 to build a population spatial distribution index on the basis of nighttime light data for an empirical study. First, ordinary least squares(OLS) regression was applied to examine the impacts of city size, spatial imbalance, lagged infrastructure construction, industrial transformation, and institutional obstacles on urban problems. Second, a threshold effect model was constructed to further investigate possible nonlinear relationships between the influencing factors and urban problems. The empirical results prove that the various aspects of urban problems should be attributed to different influencing factors since these problems are complex. The main reasons leading to traffic congestion are big city size and centralized distribution of urban population, as well as the lack of transportation infrastructure. While resources shortage is not a universal problem in most big cities, in contrast, the improvement of industrial structure, increasing supply of public services, and concentration of administrative power are helpful for big cities to attract and bring in resources. The expansion of urban population and the agglomerated structure of population distribution both hinder environmental pollution control. Besides, the growth in the proportion of non-agricultural industries and expansion of urban road area both can damage urban ecosystems.