贸易保护、出口溢出效应与中国出口市场拓展

在国际贸易摩擦不断升级的背景下,厘清贸易保护对中国区域经济发展的影响是中国当前面临的重要议题。既有演化经济地理学框架主要从供给视角出发,认为出口产品路径演化过程呈现依赖技术知识溢出的特征,忽略了需求视角的影响。基于中国海关库2002—2016年的数据,以中国出口产品进入新市场的演化路径为研究对象,本文将供需视角纳入同一解释框架,补充需求视角下的外部市场关联以及需求市场的贸易壁垒措施作为外部力量,试图探究贸易保护、出口溢出效应如何作用于中国出口市场拓展过程。研究发现：① 在出口产品结构升级的同时,中国出口目的地结构也在不断地向新兴市场国家和地区拓展。其中,东部与中部地区是出口拓展的主力区域,技术与资本密集型产品是出口拓展的主要产品类型。② 中国出口市场的拓展进程呈现出典型的路径依赖特征,包括供给视角下基于本地技术知识溢出的路径依赖与需求视角下基于目的地市场信息溢出的路径依赖。其中后者被长期忽视,但在中国出口市场拓展进程中扮演着十分重要的角色。③ 贸易保护作为一种外部冲击,可有效地削弱基于本地技术知识溢出和外部市场信息溢出的路径依赖。采用投资、区域合作等方式绕开贸易壁垒,实现出口产品与市场结构的多元化,是应对外部冲击实现可持续发展的长久之计。

Trade protection,export spillover effects and the expanding route of Chinese export market

In the context of globalization, the interests of countries are intertwined and complicated, thus leads to multiple types of trade frictions. In order to protect domestic industries, some countries frequently set up trade protection barriers to restrict Chinese exports, which has a significant impact on China's economic development. Therefore, it is crucial for us to clarify the impact of trade protection barriers on regional export expanding processes in China. Based on the data of the China Customs Database from 2002 to 2016, this article focuses on the expanding path of Chinese export products by integrating the supply and demand perspectives into the same framework. In addition to the introduction to trade barriers set in the demand market as external forces, we also take the external market relatedness effect into consideration, which enriches traditional export spillover mechanisms. The main findings are as follows: (1) With the process of product upgrading, Chinese export destination structure is gradually leaning to emerging economies. Eastern and Central China, which expand their exporting portfolio by exporting more technology-intensive and capital-intensive products, are main contributors to this process. (2) The evolution path of Chinese export products presents typical path dependence characteristics composed of market linkages and technological linkages. In comparison, market linkages, which have been formerly neglected, are more vital to the expanding process of Chinese export market. (3) Multiple trade barriers will inhibit export expanding by cutting off channels for products entry, thereby breaking the region's original export expanding routes. (4) External shocks have a common effect on expanding mechanisms of regional export products by weakening the path dependence of technological linkages and market linkages. In conclusion, absorbing foreign investment, regional economic cooperation and diversification of export product and destination structure are effective countermeasures against external shocks like trade barriers.