西北内陆河流域“自然—社会—贸易”三元水循环模式解析

持续的强人类活动大大改变了流域水循环演变的结构、路径和驱动力,后者又反过来影响着人类生存发展的水安全。日益深入的市场经济使人类活动对水循环的影响从一个流域扩展到流域之外更宽广的区域范围,以产品贸易为纽带的水“流动”已成为驱动区域水循环演变与影响区域水安全的重要内在因素。以流域为单元的传统水循环研究,难以揭示不同区域之间的水循环联系、双向回馈机制与协同进化机理。本文从西北内陆河流域长期大量输出高耗水农产品这一现象分析入手,采用理论解析与案例相结合方法,阐述分析内陆河流域自然水循环、“自然—社会”二元水循环、区域间贸易水循环的基本过程、显著特征及其驱动机制,继而首次明确提出内陆河流域“自然—社会—贸易”三元水循环模式,并就其通量计量模型、影响因素与生态环境效应、科学前沿进行了探索分析,以便未来西北内陆河水循环、水文水资源等研究能更多重视对驱动内陆河流域水循环的外部力量及其双向互馈、协同进化的分析,更新内陆河流域水安全、生态安全的思考范式。

Theoretical analysis of "natural-social-trading" ternary water cycle mode in the inland river basin of Northwest China

The continuous and intense human activities have greatly changed the structure, path and driving force of the natural water cycle evolution, which conversely influences the water security of human being. With the process of globalization and market economy, human activities not only affect the artificial development of water and soil resources, but also extend to the economic field. The "flow" of water trade contained in product has become an important internal factor that drives the evolution of the regional water cycle and affects regional water security. Traditional water cycle research, which focused on the watershed scale, is difficult to reveal the linkage, two-way feedback mechanism and co-evolution dynamic mechanism in water cycle among different regions. Starting from the phenomenon of continuous and water-intensive agricultural products export in Northwest China, this research elaborates the phenomenon, the process, the structure and their driving forces of the unitary natural water circular, nature-human society binary circular, and trading water circular within multi-regional social economic complex systems by theoretical analysis. We explicated the theoretical framework for constructing the "natural-social-trading" ternary water cycle in the inland river basin, including mode of process, driving force of water cycle, conceptual model, influencing factors and ecological environment effects. Furthermore, we discussed the frontier of water cycle research in inland river basin based on ternary water cycle model-social hydrology. We advocated that the future study on water cycle and water resources should focus more on the external forces driving the water cycle of the inland river basin and its two-way mutual feedback and co-evolution, providing theoretical references for the decision-making of water security, ecological environment security and ecological civilization construction in inland river basins.