湖北省手足口病流行的地理特征及其影响因子

使用数理统计分析和地理空间分析对2009?2016年湖北省手足口病流行的人群特征、时空特征及其影响因素进行分析，结果表明：① 手足口病主要在5岁以下儿童中流行，1岁幼儿尤其高发；男性发病率总体高于女性，但25~30岁年龄段女性高于男性。② 手足口病流行以仲春至仲夏（4~7月）为第一高发期，秋季至初冬（11~12月）为第二高发期，5月发病率最高，2月发病率最低。③ 城市地区手足口病流行重于乡村地区。④ 手足口病的季节变化主要受湿度、降水、气温等气象因素制约，年际变化和空间分异主要受千人床位数和城市化率等社会经济因素影响。⑤ 总体上，欠发达地区手足口病流行受经济因子的影响更大。

Geographical Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Prevalence of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in Hubei Province

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a major national infectious disease in recent years, and the incidence rate of HFMD in Hubei is the most serious in Central China. The study of HFMD in Hubei mainly focus on epidemiology, however, spatial and temporal characteristics and influencing factors have not been analyzed, and the spatial and temporal scales of the study are relatively rough. In this paper, the methods of geospatial analysis and statistics analysis are used. We aim to reveal the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of HFMD in Hubei from 2009 to 2016. Based on the case and incidence rate of HFMD and 11 indicators both in natural and economic factors, the matrix of 11 times 103 was built. The population distribution and seasonal variation of HFMD were collected by statistical methods. Then the correlation between incidence rate of HFMD and all kinds of influencing factors was analyzed. Then Moran index was used to identify the overall distribution of HFMD, and GETIS-ord index was used to measure the cold and hot spots of HFMD in Hubei. The spatial differentiation of HFMD incidence were explored by geodetector and geographically weighted regression model (GWR). The Results are as follows: 1) HFMD mainly primarily affects children under the age of 5 years, especially for 1 year old. While the incidence of HFMD in males is generally higher than that in females; the incidence of HFMD in women over 25 years old are higher than men of the same age. 2) The first incidence peak occurred from April to July, the second incidence peak occurred in November. The incidence is highest in May and the lowest in February. 3) HFMD is more prevalent in urban areas than in rural areas, and it is mainly distributed along the A-shaped urban skeleton. 4) The main meteorological factors like humidity, precipitation, temperature mainly affect the seasonal variation of HFMD, while the main socioeconomic factors like the number of beds per thousand and urbanization rate affect the inter-annual variation and spatial differentiation of HFMD. The prevalence of HFMD in underdeveloped areas is much more affected by economic factors. The incidence rate of HFMD is higher in Hubei province. Using mathematical statistics and geographical spatial analysis, this article analyzed the population characteristics, spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of HFMD epidemic in Hubei from 2009 to 2016. The results showed the population characteristics with two peak ages of 0?5 and 25?30, and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics with ‘hot spots’ and ‘cold spots’. Because the OLS regression analysis has not considered spatial heterogeneity, combined with geodetector and geographical weighted regression, the regional disparity of incidence rate of HFMD can be analyzed in counties of Hubei. It can provide policy suggestions for the surveillance and control of HFMD in Hubei.