基于G-TOPSIS模型的贫困农户多目标发展评价——以云南福贡县为例

建立贫困农户多目标发展评价体系,实现不同发展目标下的相对贫困的精准识别与动态监测,成为新阶段扶贫开发的迫切需求。论文面向精准扶贫、乡村振兴和可持续发展战略,基于贫困农户的短期、中期和长期目标,构建基于G-TOPSIS综合评价方法的贫困农户多目标发展评价模型,结合障碍度模型揭示不同发展目标下贫困农户的发展水平、发展差距及其致贫因素,并基于地理探测器对不同发展水平农户减贫的影响因素进行探测。以云南省福贡县为例的研究区实证结果表明:① 研究区目前仍存在大量未脱贫农户,脱贫攻坚的压力依然较大,全面脱贫是福贡县当前最紧迫的发展目标;已脱贫人口距全国和全省农村居民平均发展水平还有较大差距,仍处于相对贫困状态,具有较高的贫困脆弱性,防止返贫、缓解相对贫困的任务艰巨。② 短期目标下,主要致贫因素为劳动力受教育年限、卫生厕所、安全住房、家庭人均纯收入、家庭健康状况;中长期目标下,与全国和本省相比,家庭人均纯收入、劳动力受教育年限、安全住房为主要发展短板。③ 不同发展水平贫困农户空间分布特征存在较大差异,贫困空间分异受基础设施、地形条件、经济区位、自然资源、交通区位等因素的综合影响,农户发展水平越低,空间异质性越强,受地理环境的影响越大。研究结果可为减贫与发展战略的实施与监测提供决策依据与可靠的技术决策支持。

Multi-objective development evaluation of poverty-stricken households based on G-TOPSIS model: A case study from Fugong County,Yunnan Province

Establishing a multi-objective development evaluation system for poverty-stricken households to realize the accurate identification and dynamic monitoring of relative poverty under different development goals has become an urgent need of poverty alleviation and development in the new stage of rural poverty alleviation. Taking into consideration the strategies of targeted poverty alleviation, rural revitalization, and sustainable development, this study designed a "goal fulfillment degree" Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (G-TOPSIS) multi-objective development evaluation model that reveals the development level and development gap of poverty-stricken households under the short-, medium-, and long-term goals, and detected the influencing factors of poverty reduction of farming households at different development levels based on geographical detector. Taking Fugong County, Yunnan Province as the study area, the results show that: 1) At present, there is a large number of farming households in the study area that are still in absolute poverty, and there is still a great pressure to tackle the poverty problem. Therefore, comprehensive poverty alleviation is the most urgent development goal of Fugong County. Farming households that are out of absolute poverty are still in relative poverty and have high poverty vulnerability. They are still far from the average development level of rural residents nation-wide and in the province. Therefore, the task of preventing and alleviating relative poverty in Fugong County is arduous. 2) Under the short-term goal, the main factors contributing to poverty are the number of years of education for the labor force, sanitary toilets, safe housing, per capita net income of the family, and family health; under the medium- and long-term goals, compared with the national and provincial levels, the main development weaknesses are per capita net income of the family, education for the labor force, and safe housing. 3) Affected by infrastructure, terrain, economic geographical location, natural resources, and traffic location, the spatial distribution characteristics of poor farming households at different development levels are very different. The lower the development level of farming households, the stronger the spatial heterogeneity, and the greater the impact of geographical environment. The research results can provide efficient technical decision-making support for the implementation of national precision poverty reduction strategies, rural revitalization strategies, and sustainable development strategies.