西安市冬季采暖气象条件分析和预报方法初探

对西安市冬季采暖气象条件和预报方法进行了研究。根据国家采暖规范结合西安冬季采暖的实际，首先对西安1951年7月到2003年6月历年的逐日气象资料进行了详尽的分析，比较了国家采暖日期相关规范和规定中的3种不同的统计方法，确定了符合西安特点的采暖初终日。充分利用T213数值预报产品，对2002年和2003年两个冬半年的逐日850hPa和500hPa各时次各类气象要素及与之对应的西安各时次实况的气温作了相关分析，建立了回归方程，提出了采暖期及其逐日气温预报。

Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and Forecasting Methods for Heating in Winter in Xi'an

In order to economize energy resources and reduce pollution and to build a resources-economized society,the meteorological conditions and forecasting methods for heating in winter in Xi'an were studied.According to the National Heating Regulations in China and the heating situation in winter in Xi'an,an analysis was made of the day-to-day meteorological data during the heating period in winter from July 1951 to June 2003 in Xi'an.The first day and last day of heating in winter are confirmed by comparing three different statistical methods recommended in the related national regulations.By making good use of T213 numerical forecasting products,the correlative analyses were conducted between the various day-to-day meteorological factors at different times at 850 hPa and 500 hPa and the corresponding actual temperature during heating periods in winter in Xi'an.A regression analysis method of day-to-day temperature forecasting during heating period in winter is put forward.