梨树始花期预报

基于丰县1984—2009年气温、日照和降水量资料,分析越冬期不同时段的气象因子对梨树始花期的影响。结果表明:①后期因子影响大,前期相对较小;②温度、日照因子影响大,降水因子影响较小。越冬期温度水平高,光照充足,梨树始花期就偏早,反之始花期就偏晚;在上年12月至当年1月,除12月下旬外,最高气温偏高,影响梨树休眠期的需冷量积累,开花就越晚,最高气温偏低,需冷量的积累充足,有利于解除梨树休眠,开花就越早。采用逐步回归方法,利用SPSS软件,建立了梨树始花期预报模型,模型拟合效果较好,预报准确率满足业务要求,及时为政府和果农提供准确的始花期预报。

Prediction of Flowering Beginning of Pear Trees in Fengxian

The relationships between the dates of initial blooming of pear trees and meteorological factors are analyzed based on the temperature, sunshine, and precipitation data of Fengxian from 1984 to 2009. The results indicate: (1) the influence of the meteorological factors in the late period is greater compared to that in the previous period; (2) the influence of temperature and sunshine is obvious, and that of precipitation is small. The greater the temperature and the more the sunshine, the earlier the pear trees flower; on the contrary, the later the pear trees flowering. From December to next January (except the late December), the higher the maximum temperatures, the lower the chilling requirement to be accumulated, the later the flowering; the lower the maximum temperature (the accumulation of chilling requirement is conducive to dormancy release), the earlier the flowering. By means of the method of stepwise regression using the SPSS software, a model is established to predict the beginning of the flowering period, the accuracy of which can meet the requirements of operational meteorological service to the government and farmers.