红火蚁发生的气象等级指标

根据广州市番禺区2008—2012年红火蚁发生实测资料和同期气象资料,采用统计学、生物学等方法,建立了广州市番禺区红火蚁发生的气象等级指标。结果表明,红火蚁大发生的气象条件为温度22~27℃,湿度70%~85%或降雨量在1~100 mm,易发生的气象条件为温度22~27℃,较易发生的气象条件为温度20~22℃或27~30℃,不易发生的气象条件为低于20℃或高于30℃。2008—2012年红火蚁发生发展气象等级回代准确率达80%,2013年的试报红火蚁的大发生期4月上旬—5月中旬准确率达到92%。

Indexes of Meteorological Categories for the Outbreak of Solenopsis Invicta

Based on the observations of Solenopsis Invicta outbreaks in 2008--2012 and the meteorologi- cal data of Panyu District, Guangzhou for the same period of time, a number of indexes of meteorological categories are set up to indicate the local outbreaks of the pest. The results are presented as follows. When the temperature is 22 to 27℃, humidity is 70% to 85% or rainfall amount is 1 to 100 ram, Solenopsis Invicta is going to have major outbreaks. When only the condition of temperature is in the same range while the other two do not fall into their respective ranges above, an outbreak will also very likely to occur. When the temperature is 20 to 22 ℃ or 27 to 30 ℃ , an outbreak is likely to happen and when it is less than 20 ℃ or higher than 30 ℃ , an outbreak is unlikely to take place. Retrospective forecasting of the outbreak and development of Solenopsis Invicta is 80% accurate for different meteorological conditions in 2008 to 2012. A trial forecast of a major outbreak of Solenopsis Invicta was made for early April to mid-May of 2013 and it was 92% accurate.