Projection of Future Precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model |
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Authors: | FENG Lei ZHOU Tianjun WU Bo Tim LI and Jing-Jia LUO |
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Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,IPRC and University of Hawaii, Hawaii, USA,Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan |
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Abstract: | Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on
the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319
(equivalent to 40 km). Evaluation of the model's performance in simulating
present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial
distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the
locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The
simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The
performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that
over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of
precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential
change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both
annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase
significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme
precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile,
decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern
Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are
projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over
northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease. |
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Keywords: | future precipitation change high-resolution AGCM simulation extreme precipitation |
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