T639资料在一次单站短时暴雨预报中的释用

2012年7月11308时-21308时黑龙江省西南部地区出现多站暴雨，其中绥化市青冈县的永丰乡．在18—19时1h降水量达到84mm。本文利用高分辨率的T639资料对此次短时强降水的成因进行分析，结果发现：T639资料中预报要素丰富，预报要素分辨率较高，对短时强对流天气的发生发展有较好的指示作用；物理量舶快速变化或物理量梯度大处对强对流发生发展的预报意义更大，而动态地考虑集合区发生时段前后物理量的变化，则更有利加强短时强对流预报的精细化。

Application of T639 data to short-time rainstorm at a single station

A multi-station rainstorm occurred in the southwest of Heilongjiang province during July 108- 208,2012. The rainfall of Yongfeng Town in Suihua city reached 84 mm at 18-19 on July 1st. By using high resolu- tion T639 data to analyze the causes of the short-time heavy rainfall, the results show that： T639 data have the characteristics of abundant forecast elements and higher forecast resolution, providing great information on the development of severe convection; The rapid＂ changes of physical quantities or big physical quantities gradients are greater significance to the prediction of severe convection development. And considering the changes of phys- ical quantities in the most beneficial physical quantity collection area continuously is more advantageous to strengthen the refinement of short-term severe convective forecast.