人口与GDP空间化技术支持下的暴雨洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性分析

基于统计年鉴资料和土地利用数据,分别建立人口、GDP空间化模型,模拟南京市浦口区人口和GDP的空间分布。并结合暴雨洪涝历史灾情数据,探索区县级行政区域暴雨洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性风险评估技术方法,最终获得100 m×100 m格网的浦口区暴雨洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性空间分布图。研究结果表明:(1)人口、GDP的空间化模拟结果,既与各镇街统计数据保持一致,又反映了各镇街内部的人口、GDP分布的空间变化,可以为承灾体脆弱性评估提供精细化、可靠的数据源。(2)浦口区暴雨洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性高风险区,分布在东北部经济较为发达的城镇街道而老山山脉和沿江内陆滩涂地区脆弱性风险较低。

Vulnerability analysis of flood disasters hazard-affected body under the support of spatialization technology of population and GDP

Based on statistical yearbook and land-use data, the spatialization models for population and GDP are established respectively to simulate spatial distribution of population and GDP in Pukou district, Nanjing. Combined with flood disaster history data, risk assessment technology and methods of the flood disaster hazard-affected body vulnerability of administrative units at the county level are explored. Finally, the spatial distribution of flood disaster hazard-affected body vulnerability in Pukou with a resolution of 100 m×100 m is obtained. The results show that: (1) the spatialization simulation results of population and GDP are not only consistent with the statistical data of towns and streets, but reflect their inner-change of spatial distribution, which can provide reliable data for vulnerability assessment of hazard-affected body. (2) The high-risk area of the flood disaster hazard-affected body vulnerability is located in the urban streets in northeastern Pukou with more developed economy, on the other hand, the vulnerability risk of Laoshan mountains and inland areas along the beach remains relatively low.