以数值产品为基础的省级分县温度预报方法

将国家气象中心Ｔ６３，Ｔ１０６和欧洲中心数值模式中温度预报场，湿度预报场，ｕ，ｖ分量预报分别插值到１０８个测站上，以此作为预报因子，运用ＰＰＭ，ＭＯＳ，ＫＦ（卡尔曼滤波法）等方法分别建立最低，最高气温预报方程，用以上预报方法所是的预报结果作为预报因子，进行二次滤波集成和全集成预报，并建立了“数值产品省级分县温度预报系统”的１９９７年６月～１１月将该预报系统投入业务运行，取得了良好的预报效果。

Study of Temperature Forecasting method at the County level based on the NWP Product

The NWP fields of T.H.U.V. of NMC's T63, T106 and ECMWF's numerical model were separtely interpoleted into 108 meteorological stations. The interpoleted results were used as predicting factors to establish predicting equations of max. and min. tempreture by means of PPM, MOS and KF filter methods. With the above predicted results, the second filter consensus forecast and perfect consensus forecast were made, and the Temperatute Forecasting System for Every County by the provincial meteorological observatory based on the NWP product was developed. The operational practics from June to November in 1997 proved that the system showed good predicting results.