卡尔曼滤波技术在暴雨中期预报中的应用

在河北暴雨中期预报系统中，应用卡尔曼滤波技术对ＥＣＭＷＦ５００ｈＰａ高度预报场进行了订正。通过对ＥＣＭＷＦ５００ｈＰａ高度场的多种订正试验，分析比较未订正的和各种不同订正方案的高度预报均方根误差，证明卡尔曼滤波双因子订正对于提高暴雨预报能力是有效的。

Application of Kalman Filter method to the Medium range Forecasting System for Heavy Rain

In the medium range forecasting system for heavy rain, the ECMWF 500hPa height predictions are corrected with Kalman filter method. The approach was put into the operational application in the summers of 1996 and 1997. The results show that the approach is effective and the forecast accuracy is improved. In this papper, the correction method is introduced, and experiments of correcting ECMWF 500hPa height predictions are made, the root mean square errors of uncorected and corrected 500hPa height predictions are analyzed and compared.