| 一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 金学申 邵辉成. 一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法[J]. 中国地震, 1998, 14(3): 88-93 |
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| 作者姓名： | 金学申 邵辉成 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]河北省地震局 [2]陕西省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法，它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求，所以，对低地震活动地区，此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后，以华北地区为例，说明了本方法的可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 判别准则 贝叶斯准则 危险性估计 地震 |
A New Method on Estimation of Future Seismic Risk Based on Bayesian Minimun Criterion |
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| Jin Xueshen ) Shao Huicheng ) Liu Yunqing ) Liu Zhihui ) Du Xingxin ) Zhu Ailan ) ). A New Method on Estimation of Future Seismic Risk Based on Bayesian Minimun Criterion[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 1998, 14(3): 88-93 |
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| Authors: | Jin Xueshen ) Shao Huicheng ) Liu Yunqing ) Liu Zhihui ) Du Xingxin ) Zhu Ailan ) ) |
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| Affiliation: | Jin Xueshen 1) Shao Huicheng 2) Liu Yunqing 1) Liu Zhihui 1) Du Xingxin 2) Zhu Ailan 1) 1) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a new prediction method based on maximun likelihood and Bayesian minmun criterion has been suggested. High examples is not necessary for this method. Therefore, the stady and time dependent estimation for the future strong earthquake risk could also be obtained for low seismicity area by this method. Finally, taking North China area as an example, the feasibility of the model has been shown. |
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| Keywords: | Criterion Earthquake Risk New Method |
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