水文学确定性和不确定性方法的耦合初探

水文现象具有确定性和不确定性,常用确定性方法和不确定性方法分析。这两种方法在水文学中广泛应用并愈来愈密切耦合。对这种耦合的背景、实质和途径等进行了初步分析。给出了水文学确定性方法和不确定性方法耦合的内涵;分析了耦合的客观背景,指出确定性和不确定性辩证的统一、不确定性和确定性在一定条件下相互转化是耦合的哲学基础;总结了耦合的三大主要途径:(1)简单混合。对某一个水文问题的解决分成两个部份,一个部份用确定性方法,另一个部份用不确定性法;(2)一般嵌入。指在某种分析法的总体框架下,局部或某些部分嵌入另一种分析法以达到提高分析可靠性之目的;(3)复杂的渗入。指两种方法相互渗透,充分发挥各自特色促使耦合效应独突。

Exploration on Coupling of Deterministic Methods and Nondeterministic Methods in Hydrology

Hydrological phenomena with certainty and uncertainty, have been commonly analyzed based on the deterministic methods and nondeterministic methods. These two methods have been widely used in hydrology and increasingly close to couple. This paper made a preliminary study on the coupling to the background, essence and approach. The first connotation of coupling based on hydrology deterministic methods and nondeterministic methods were given; Then the objective background of coupling was analyzed, the philosophical foundation of coupling about dialectical unity of the certainty and uncertainty, mutual transformation of uncertainty and certainty of under certain conditions were pointed out; In the end, the three main ways of coupling were concluded: (1) Simple mixing way for the solution of a hydrological problem was divided into two parts, one part is based on a deterministic method, an - other part is based on nondeterministic methods; (2) General embedded way in a general framework on a deterministic method and a nondeterministic method were embedded in order to improve the reliability; (3) Complex coupling it means mutual penetration of a deterministic method and a nondeterministic method for giving full play to their respective features.