浙江盛夏降温用电负荷评估模型研究

运用相关分析、回归分析、方差分析、REOF等方法,对浙江盛夏的气温与用电负荷的关系进行了分析,建立了降温用电负荷评估模型,还分析了浙江盛夏降温耗能(降温度日数)的分布和长期变化特征。结果表明,浙江盛夏的日平均气温与日平均用电负荷、日最高气温与日最大负荷存在显著的正相关,以此为基础建立的降温负荷评估方程具有较高的拟合度;50年来,浙江盛夏降温耗能(降温度日数)年际波动大,浙北区降温度日数略呈下降趋势,浙西南区呈明显下降趋势,而浙沿海区则呈明显上升趋势。

Evaluation Model of Electricity Loads in Midsummer in Zhejiang Province

The relationship between temperature in midsummer and electrical loads in Zhejiang Province is analyzed by means of REOF,regression analysis,correlation analysis,etc.The evaluation model of electricity loads in midsummer is built.The cooling degree days are used as the index to estimate energy consumption for cooling in midsummer.The spatial distribution and the long-term variation features of cooling energy consumption in Zhejiang Province are analyzed.The main results are:(1) There is distinct positive correlation between daily mean temperature and daily mean power load and between daily maximum temperature and daily maximum(power) load.The evaluation equations built on the basis of this theory fit the real electrical loads for cooling well.(2) The cooling energy consumption(cooling degree days) in Zhejiang Province in midsummer fluctuated greatly in the last 50 years.The cooling degree days show a slight downtrend in the northern Zhejiang Province,an obvious downtrend in the southwestern part,and an obvious uptrend in the coastal area.