气候变化对生态保护工程的影响

通过分析1978-2013年三北（东北、西北、华北）防护林建设区降水、气温等气象要素变化与植被生态质量的相互关系，以及1961-2013年我国主要草原区气象要素变化与草原生产力的相互关系，指出2000年以来北方降水增多导致三北防护林地区植被生态质量持续好转，且2000年以来在降水增加、生态工程实施的情况下，北方草原生态恶化的局面有所改变。进一步根据RCPs排放情景和预估的我国未来气候变化，指出未来30～60年我国北方地区气候呈现暖湿化趋势，利于巩固和扩大三北防护林和草原生态建设成果，缩短生态恢复的时间；但气候增暖会增加森林和草原火灾及病虫害的发生范围和频率。在对策上，指出应充分利用北方气候暖湿化的正效应，加快三北防护林建设和北方草原生态恢复；同时加强防护林和草原适应气候变化和防灾减灾的科学研究。

Effect of Climate Change on Key Ecological Protection Projects

In this paper, the relationship between ecological quality for land vegetation and the precipitation & temperature changes during 1978-2013 in the northern part of China (North China, Northeast and Northwest China, Shelterbelt Construction Program region) was analyzed, and so was grassland productivity and precipitation & temperature changes during 1961-2013 in main grassland in China. The ecological quality for land vegetation increased due to the precipitation increase in the northern part of China, and the ecological degradation in grassland slowed down, resulting from the precipitation increase and the grassland ecological protection. The temporal and spacial distribution of precipitation and temperature in China and the extreme events are the main constraints on the achievements of Shelterbelt Construction Program in the northern part of China and Grassland Ecological Protection Project. According to the future climate change in China under RCPs greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the climate will get warmer and wetter in the northern part of China in the next 30-60 year, which will be beneficial to the Shelterbelt Construction Program and Grassland Ecological Protection Project, and the time for ecological restoration will be shorten. But the warmer temperature will increase the risk of wild fire, pest and disease. In coping with these, speeding up the schedule of the shelterbelt construction and grassland ecological restoration is preferable, meantime the scientific research on adaption to climate changes as well as disaster prevention and mitigation should be carried out as soon as possible.