基于随机情景模拟的船舶溢油危害后果量化评价——以台湾海峡北部水域为例

为克服典型情景模拟法的缺陷,综合考虑船舶溢油发生的随机性、海洋水动力和风场的不确定性以及环境资源的敏感性,提出基于随机情景模拟的船舶溢油危害后果定量评价方法。通过随机情景模拟和网格化统计得到敏感区的溢油污染概率和最快到达时间,结合环境敏感指数和溢油量等参数计算综合溢油危害指数,并将其作为溢油危害后果定量评价指标。结果表明:台湾海峡北部水域不同季节发生船舶溢油的危害后果大小依次为夏季(27.8)秋季(25.5)春季(21.1)冬季(16.2),夏季溢油事故对牛山岛保护区的污染概率和危害后果相对最大(P=60%,Ck=41.2),达到较高级别;其他季节东甲列岛保护区的溢油污染概率和危害指数均为最高。随机情景模拟能够弥补事故情景,为评价船舶溢油危害后果风险提供一种新方法。

QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SHIP OIL SPILL HAZARD BASED ON STOCHASTIC SCENARIO SIMULATION: A CASE STUDY IN NORTHERN TAIWAN STRAIT

We proposed a quantitative evaluation based on the stochastic scenario simulation to assess the hazards of a ship oil spill, in which the randomness of ship oil spill occurence, the uncertainty of hydrodynamics, wind force in the ocean, and the sensitivity of environmental resources are considered to overcome the defects of typical scenario simulation. According to the probability of oil spill pollution in a sensitive area and the shortest arrival time that obtained by stochastic scenario simulation and grid statistics, combined with the parameters such as environmental sensitivity index and oil spill amount, we are able to determine the oil spill damage index with which quantitative evaluation of the damage can be done. The results show that in the northern Taiwan Strait, the scale of ship oil spill pollution in different seasons is in a descending order from summer (27.8), autumn (25.5), spring (21.1), to winter (16.2). In summer, the Niushan Island Ecological Reserves is more likely to be affected by a ship oil spill, and the rating of the pollution probability and damage index is high, while in other seasons, that of the protection zone in Dongjia Islands is the highest. The stochastic scenario simulation can make up for many missing accident scenarios, assess the effect of a ship oil spill objectively and comprehensively on marine environmental resources, and provide a new method for evaluating the risk of ship oil spill damages.