保定地区雷电分布特征及短时预警模型分析

根据保定市近2002—2011年18个地面观测站的雷暴日资料,分析研究了保定市雷电活动的时空分布特点。在此基础上利用保定市11部大气电场监测仪组网实时监测数据,找出电场幅值和上升率两个预警因子确定预警阈值,建立保定雷电短时预警模型。通过对36个雷电样本进行检验：提前30分钟预警的准确率达到60%,前20分钟达到74%,提前10分钟达到88%。结果表明,随着时间临近其预警准确率明显提高,对雷电短时预警具有很好的参考价值。

The Research for Lightning Distributes Characteristic and Short Time Early-warning Model

An analytic study of the time—space distribution features of lightning activities has been completed on the basis of ground weather observation data.Using Baoding 11 atmosphere electric field monitor meter network real-time monitor data,electric field amplitude and rising rate were found,the Short-time forecast model about lightning of Baoding establishes.Through carries on the examination to 36 lightning samples,the result is as follows： the accuracy rate achieved 60%,74% and 88% respectively,if monitor 30,20 and 10 minutes in advance.The result indicated approaches its early warning rate of accuracy distinct enhancement along with the time,has the very good reference value to the lightning short-time early warning.