黑河流量对祁连山气候年代际变化的响应

利用祁连山区8个气象站自建站至2003年观测的月降水、气温资料, 在分析各站气候要素互相关的基础上, 建立了代表祁连山整体气候变化的1944-2003年历年各月、季降水距平百分率和气温距平序列, 以及黑河上游莺落峡水文站观测的径流量, 分析了黑河流量与祁连山区降水、气温的年代际变化。结果表明: 祁连山气候演变存在非常明显的年际和年代际变化。自1970年代以来, 除夏季降水量呈上升趋势外, 秋、冬、春三季均表现出明显的变干, 尤其是秋、冬两季。本世纪初降水量又有增加趋势。比较过去60a气温变化, 1940年代最暖, 1960年代最冷。自1980年代以来, 祁连山区气候明显变暖, 各季气温显著升高, 尤以冬季升温最快, 目前已超过1940年代的暖期。1980年代的流量是过去60a中最大的10a, 1990年代有所减小。1990年代后期流量明显增加, 目前除春季外, 夏、秋、冬季已转入上升趋势。

Responding of Heihe River Runoff to Decadal Climate Change in Qilian Mountain Area

The decadal variety of Heihe river runoff and Qilian mountain climate from 1944 to 2003 have been analyzed by using Yingluoxia hydrology station runoff data at upper Heihe river and by using the standardized monthly precipitation and air temperature sequences observed at 8 weather stations situated between(2 240)～(3 361) m altitude in Qilian mountain area. The runoff of 1980's is the biggest in past 60 years, that of(1990's) relatively decreased, but primarily decreased in summer to autumn, and runoff in winter to spring still kept high. The climate evolution in Qilian Mountain existed very clear seasonal change, annual change and decadal change. Since 1970's, precipitation in autumn, winter and spring showed obvious change to drought, particularly in autumn and winter, while that in summer showed upping trend. Since 1980's, the climate obviously changed warming in Qilian mountain area, air temperature in each season remarkably in creasing and Qilian Mountain s snow line raising. The synthesized analysis showed that the increasing of Heihe river's runoff was expressed by two aspects: one is the summer precipitation increasing, the other is winter climate obviously warming.