1956-2007年新疆玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势分析

对玛纳斯河流域10个台站1956-2007年52 a的温度、降水量和蒸发量序列进行非参数检验,诊断其阶段性转换及变化趋势,并以阶段性转换的跳跃点为分割点,利用R/S分析方法预测其未来一段时间的变化趋势.结果表明:温度、降水量和蒸发量的跳跃点分别发生在1989、1998年和1988年,并且皆通过0.05水平的显著性检验,...

Climate Change in the Manas River Basin,Xinjiang druing 1956-2007

By use of nonparametric test,in this paper,the time-series of annual mean air temperature,precipitation and evaporation(1956—2007) at ten stations were analyzed in order to find their changing tendencies and characteristics of step change,then their time-series were parted into two partitions by jump point.Meanwhile,based on R/S method,the changing tendencies in the coming period were forecasted in the Manas River basin,Xinjiang Region.It is found that air temperature and precipitation changed abruptly at 1989,1997 and evaporation at 1993,with the significant of 0.05 level.Air temperature and precipitation(1956—2007) had significantly increased,on the other hand,evaporation(1956—2007) had decreased significantly.Through R/S analysis of the temperature(1989—2007),precipitation(1998—2007) and evaporation(1988—2007),the Hurst exponents are obtained,which indicate that at a certain period of time after 2007,air temperature in the Manas River basin would increase but precipitation and evaporation would decrease.