严重的挫折 重要的启示汶川8.0级地震引发的对地震预测研究的某些科学思考

首先指出汶川8.0级地震前我国地震工作部门地震预测努力遭受严重挫折的主要表现, 阐明这一严重挫折是地震预测面临的三个主要困难: 地球内部“不可入性”、 大地震的“非频发性”和地震物理过程“复杂性”。 但这一严重挫折给人以重要的启示: 面对地震预测这一科学难题, 必须勇于扬弃, 努力处理好地震预测经验的继承与发展的关系; 必须充分发挥地震科技工作者群体的主体作用, 努力推进地震预测理论、 技术的创新; 必须明确地震预测的主要对象, 加强大地震的预测研究。

Severe Failure and Important Recognition: Some Thoughts on Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Research due to the Wenchuan 8.0 Earthquake

In this paper,we first analyse the severe setbacks that the efforts of earthquake prediction research has suffered in Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake.Three major difficulties are considered to contribute to that situation: the unknowability of the inner earth,the infrequency of major earthquakes,and the complexity of earthquake physical process.But these serious setbacks also carry several significant implications: Faced with the difficulties of earthquake prediction,we should endeavor to appropriately handle the...