T-S-K模糊逻辑算法在抚河水文预报中的应用

目前我国水文机构存有大量的水文数据,如何充分有效地利用智能算法对这些数据进行分析和挖掘,降低预测的复杂度并提高水文预测的精度,是水文预报的一个重要的发展方向。数据挖掘中的T-S-K模糊逻辑算法从大量数据中提取未知、可操作、有相关性的水文模式和关系用于水文预报。本文以抚河上下游3个重要水文站历史数据为实例,建立T-S-K模糊逻辑算法水文预报,分析结果表明该算法所建模型误差较小,预测精度高,可满足实际水文预报需求。

Hydrological Forecasting based on T-S-K Fuzzy Logic System in Fuhe River Basin

A large amount of hydrological data stores in hydrological institutions in our country. In order to improve the accuracy of hydrological forecasts and to lower the complexity of the forecast, a important research direction is how to use intelligent algorithm to analyze the data. T-S-K fuzzy logic system is one of the opinions. The Takagi- Sugeno-Kang (T-S-K) fuzzy system is adopted in this study to establish the relationship between the observed downstream discharges and the observed upstream discharges in the Fu River basin. The result shows that the quality of the modle built by T -S -K fuzzy logic system is good, the forecast accuracy is high, the forecast model quite meet the practical application requirements.