多种外界随机荷载综合作用下的坝坡风险评价

对于边坡的风险评价，目前研究领域主要涉及的是边坡系统在自身岩土体材料力学参数为随机变量情况下的风险性，而对于综合考虑外界多种自然因素随机性的影响却研究甚少。只有少数学者对随机水位与随机水平地震力共同作用下的边坡结构风险进行了初探，但进行水文分析时，仅考虑了随机水位情况下由静水压力所引起的边坡失效风险，而忽略了渗流因素对坝坡破坏风险的影响。针对这种不足，在以往研究的基础上，考虑了渗流因素的作用，对多种外界随机荷载综合作用下的坝坡风险进行了评价，并以沟后水库大坝下游坝坡为实例，将渗透变形与地震力作用滑坡风险进行了耦合，从而对多因素共同作用下的边坡风险进行了评价。

Risk analysis of dam slope under external random multi-loadings

For risk analysis of slope, present study field is focused on the case of parameters of rock and soil material itself being random variables. The influence of natural multi-random factors is considered little. Only a few of scholars have done preliminary research on the risk of slope under random water level and horizontal earthquake force. But in hydrological risk analysis, just the failure risk caused by hydrostatic pressure was considered. The risk caused by seepage was ignored. In view of this shortage and on the basis of previous study, seepage factor is introduced and the risk of dam slope is evaluated under external random multi-loadings. As a typical example, the means is applied to downstream slope of Gouhou dam. In this project, the influence of permeated deformation and earthquake force are coupled and slope risk is evaluated under natural multi-random factors.