怒江大坝建设中的各方博弈分析

在怒江上修建大坝是否可行,引起了社会各界的广泛争议。赞成者和反对者各执一词,使得怒江大坝工程的上马被迫搁浅。应用博弈论的方法可以分析在怒江大坝建设的论证过程中,中央政府、环保人士和当地人民的利益关系,并且可以证明在没有环境保护法律的保障下,环保评价的弊端。通过对各方博弈的分析,说明了政府在进行怒江大坝建设的决策过程中,必须高瞻远瞩,以全社会的可持续发展为根本出发点,同时要兼顾当地人民的利益,并要以此为基础制定出一套科学的工程建设环境评价法律。

THE GAME ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN SUBJECTS ON THE ARGUMENT OF THE DAM CONSTRUCTION OF NUJIANG RIVER

It gives arise to universal arguments on the feasibility of the dam construction of Nujiang River. The assentients and the opponents both insist their own position firmly, and the dam construction was forced to suspended. It can analyze the benefits relation of the central government, the environmental organization and the local people on the course of the decision making of the dam construction of Nujiang River by using the methods of game theory, and it can prove that many drawbacks will develop without scientific environmental evaluation laws. By analyzing the subjects of the parties in the game model, it illustrates that the outlook of the government should be long-term, they should make decision on the sustainable development of the whole society, and they should also consider the benefits of local people. Then they should lay down series of scientific project environmental laws on the basis of the above.