| The Variability of the Interannual Oscillations of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall |
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| 作者姓名： | R. Vijayakumar J. R. Kulkarni |
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| 作者单位： | Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology，Pune-411008，India，Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology，Pune-411008，India |
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| 摘 要： | A new method of analysis namely, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon (June-September) Rainfall (ISMR) series. The method is efficient in extracting the statistically significant oscillations with periods 2.8 and 2.3 year from the white noise of the ISMR series. The study shows that 2.8 / 2.3 year cycle captures the variability of the ISMR related to Southern Oscillation / Quasi Biennial Oscillation. The temporal structure of these oscillations show that these are in phase in extreme (excess and drought) monsoon conditions as well as in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. Both these oscillations show minimum variability during the period 1920-1940 and there is an increasing trend in the variability of these oscillations in the recent decades. The study enables to obtain pure signal consisting of reconstructed time series using these two Oscillations, from the original white noise series.
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| 收稿时间： | 19 April 1994 |
The variability of the interannual oscillations of the indian summer monsoon rainfall |
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| R. Vijayakumar,J. R. Kulkarni.The Variability of the Interannual Oscillations of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1995,12(1):95-102. |
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| Authors: | R Vijayakumar J R Kulkarni |
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| Institution: | (1) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411008 Pune, India |
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| Abstract: | A new method of analysis namely, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon (June-September) Rainfall (ISMR) series. The method is efficient in extracting the statistically significant oscillations with periods 2.8 and 2.3 year from the white noise of the ISMR series. The study shows that 2.8 / 2.3 year cycle captures the variability of the ISMR related to Southern Oscillation / Quasi Biennial Oscillation. The temporal structure of these oscillations show that these are in phase in extreme (excess and drought) monsoon conditions as well as in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. Both these oscillations show minimum variability during the period 1920-1940 and there is an increasing trend in the variability of these oscillations in the recent decades. The study enables to obtain pure signal consisting of reconstructed time series using these two Oscillations, from the original white noise series. |
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| Keywords: | Singular Spectrum Analysis Monsoon Variability |
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