中国南北带北段地震强度与时间推测

中国南北地震带是一个强震密集,人所注目的地区。本文以南北带北端地震活动性资料为基础,检验模糊数学中的信息检索方法预报地震的效果。对于一个待报时间段,方法选用相应的三个资料时间段范围,选取若干个地震活动性指标,如:相邻两个资料时间段中发生地震(MA retrieval method of fuzzy information for simultaneous assessment of the time of occurrence and magnitude of a possible coming earthquake was proposed. This method was cheeked by using the seismic data since the 17th century for the northern portion of the North-South Earthquake Belt and promising result was obtained. The possibility of occurrence of a large earthquake in this zone within the next ten years was also assessed.19861顾瑾平,虞雪君,盛国英. 1986: 中国南北带北段地震强度与时间推测. 地震学报,8(1): 21-27.GU JINPIPNG,YU XUEJUN,SIIENG GUOTINGcom sh advance. 1986: RECKONING EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE AND OCCURRENCE TIME FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTH-SOUTH EARTHQUAKE BELT OF CHINA. Acta Seismologica Sinica,8(1): 21-27.[1] [1] 王振声、王周元、顾瑾平、熊晓易,中国南北地震带的范围及其活动性的初步探讨,地球物理学报,19,110—117,1976.

[2] 冯德益、顾瑾平、罗瑞铭、盛国英,地震活动的统计指标与发震时间的概率预报,地震研究,4,1—8,1931.

[3] 冯德益、郑斯华、盛国英、傅征祥、高世磊、罗瑞铭、李炳灿,我国西部地区一些强震及中强震前后波速异常的初步研究(一)——波速比异常,地球物理学报,19,196—205,1976.

[4] 楼世博、冯德益、陈化成、顾瑾平、林命周、龚雪君、钟廷姣,Fuzzy信怠检索法在地震预报研究中的应用,模糊数学,1,113—120,1983.

[5] 蜀水,震源应力场岩石膨胀性和水的扩散作用,地球物理学报,19,74—94,1976.
2127https://www.dzxb.org/cn/article/id/5e93ebba-4499-4f61-9145-2c8f22950429https://www.dzxb.org/cn/article/id/5e93ebba-4499-4f61-9145-2c8f22950429https://www.dzxb.org/article/exportPdf?id=5e93ebba-4499-4f61-9145-2c8f22950429https://www.dzxb.org/fileDZXB/journal/article/dzxb/1986/1/

RECKONING EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE AND OCCURRENCE TIME FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTH-SOUTH EARTHQUAKE BELT OF CHINA

A retrieval method of fuzzy information for simultaneous assessment of the time of occurrence and magnitude of a possible coming earthquake was proposed. This method was cheeked by using the seismic data since the 17th century for the northern portion of the North-South Earthquake Belt and promising result was obtained. The possibility of occurrence of a large earthquake in this zone within the next ten years was also assessed.