基于能值分析的城市可持续发展水平与经济增长关系研究——以泉州市为例

城市作为一定区域的中心,在区域经济社会发展中起着举足轻重的作用,如何实现城市的可持续发展,也一直是地理学人地关系研究的热点问题。针对当前城市可持续发展研究中忽视其动态机制的现状,以泉州市为例,在运用能值分析法对可持续发展水平进行定量测度的基础上,通过构建可持续发展库兹涅茨曲线模型(SDKC)对泉州市的城市可持续发展水平与经济增长之间的动态关系进行分析,并运用改进的灰色斜率关联度模型对曲线成因进行了讨论。研究结果表明:泉州城市可持续发展水平与经济增长间存在先降后升的U型SDKC关系;城市可持续发展水平与经济规模,第二、三产业比重,出口依存度和政府影响力呈负相关,与第一产业比重、广义技术减排、外商投资呈正相关,并据此提出一些政策建议。

Relationship between sustainable urban development and economic growth based on emergy analysis:a case study of Quanzhou City

Cities are centers of surrounding regions and play an important role in regional economic and social developments. Approaches for achieving sustainable urban development has been a hot topic in the study of human- environment relationship. However, the dynamic mechanism of sustainable urban development is relatively neglected in existing urban sustainability studies. In this research, emergy analysis method was used to measure the level of sustainable urban development. On the basis of this analysis, we built a new model of Sustainable Development Kuznets Curve (SDKC), and used Quanzhou City as a case to analyze the dynamic relationship of economic growth and level of sustainable urban development. In addition, an improved model of degree of grey slope incidence was used to preliminarily examine the causes of the SDKC. The results show that the SDKC of Quanzhou City reveals a U-shaped relationship between the level of sustainable urban development and economic growth; the level of sustainable urban development was in negative correlation with economic scale, proportion of secondary industry, proportion of tertiary industry, export dependence, and the influence of government. The generalized pollutant discharge reduction technologies, proportion of primary industry, and foreign investment played a positive role on the level of sustainable urban development. According to the results, we put forward some recommendations on promoting sustain development of the city for decision-makers, including facilitating the transformation of economic growth mode to strengthen the positive effect of modern service industry for sustainable development; adjusting export structure and improving the efficiency of exports; avoiding repetitive public infrastructure development; strengthening technological innovations to promote energy conservation; stringent environmental regulation and barriers to entry, among others. The results of this study may provide some references and foundations for the city government to accurately grasp its sustainable urban development status and dynamic mechanism, and formulate policies that are scientifically sound for sustainable urban development.