河南省境内淮河南北气候变化的小麦适应度比较

适应度是气候变化下适应性研究的关键环节,本文提出气候变化适应度的概念及其定量评价方法,并对淮河南北的小麦适应度进行比较分析。结果表明,目前河南省境内的南北气候分界线并非淮河干流区,而是由原位置北移约300 km处的最大支流地带,冬小麦的适应度空间变化大致围绕该分界线呈经向分布。淮河分界线以南地域适应度为62.57%,高于以北地域的56.81%,研究结果表明,欲达到河南农业可持续发展,距离完全适应仍有较大空间需要人为调控,且北部相比较南部其调控压力更大。在年际变化上,随着20世纪80年代气候的突变,各地小麦温度适应度骤增,水分适应度骤减,之后随着气候的日趋稳定,各气候要素的适应度不断上升,但在21世纪初上升速度下降,甚至有降低趋势,表明气候变暖的环境对小麦的负面影响日渐突出。

Comparative Studies on Degree of Adaption of Wheat under Climate Change between Areas South and North of Huaihe River in Henan Province

Degree of adaption is one of the key components of adaptability processes under climate change.In this paper,we established the concepts and methods of degree of adaption(DA) in order to comparably analyze the DA of wheat in area south and north of the Huaihe River in Henan Province.Results demonstrate that the climate dividing line is not the mainstream areas of Huaihe River,but the largest tributary of the area is located in were the further north,about 300 km away from the original zone.And the spatial variation of DA of winter wheat is approximately distributed around this area.The DA of the area,which is to the south of the dividing line of the Huaihe River,is 62.57%,which is higher than 56.81% in the northern area.Therefore there is still a large space which requires the human regulation and control to adapt the wheat to the climate change.And the pressure on human control in the northern area is greater than in the southern.As regards to the annual change,accompanied by the abrupt climate change in the 1980s,the temperature DA surged but the moisture DA plunged.In the following periods when the climate became stable,DA kept an increasing tendency.However the increasing speed of DA declined in the early 21st century when a plunge trend appeared,indicating that the negative impact on wheat from global warming has become increasingly prominent.