建立海洋平台管节点PSN曲线的贝叶斯方法

针对管节点疲劳试验的小样本特点，探讨了建立ＰＳＮ 曲线的贝叶斯方法。在贝叶斯方法中，ＰＳＮ曲线的统计参数作为随机变量处理，首先根据贝叶斯定理求出参数向量的后验概率密度，然后建立ＰＳＮ曲线的贝叶斯方程，最后再编程计算。算例表明，与传统的ＰＳＮ 曲线相比，贝叶斯ＰＳＮ 曲线更加安全可靠

Bayesian Method for Establishing P S N Curves of Joints of Offshore Platform

It is important to establish reliable P S N curves for the joints of offshore platforms based on laboratory fatigue test data. Because the fatigue data set of joints is relatively small, a proper statistical method is necessary. In this paper, Bayesian method for establishing P S N curves is discussed. In Bayesian method, the unknown parameters in the fatigue model are considered as random quantities. Firstly, a posterior joint probability mass function of parameters is calculated, using Bayesian theorem. Secondly, an equation of Bayesian P S N curve is established. Finally, in order to analyse any set of fatigue data, a computer program is developed. The use of Bayesian method is illustrated based on the analysis of a typical fatigue data set of joints.