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夏季降水量与气温资料的恢复试验
引用本文:黄嘉佑 刘小宁 李庆祥. 夏季降水量与气温资料的恢复试验[J]. 应用气象学报, 2004, 15(2): 200-206
作者姓名:黄嘉佑 刘小宁 李庆祥
作者单位:1.北京大学物理学院大气科学系, 北京 100871
基金项目:国家科技基础性工作专项基金项目 2 0 0 1DEA3 0 0 2 9 0 1,国家气象中心课题“台站环境改变对我国气温观测的影响研究”(课题号为ZK2 0 0 2B 1 9)的资助
摘    要:
该文对我国汛期降水量和气温缺测资料及资料均一性恢复的方法进行试验研究。对单个气候地区(东北区),以及全国6个气候地区用逐步回归和逐步判别方法进行缺测1~5年恢复试验。对东北地区内所有站点的试验表明,逐步判别分析方法比逐步回归分析方法恢复效果好些;选择邻站用判别分析方法建立的恢复模型,效果更好。全国气候地区试验表明,选择邻站的判别分析方法有较好的恢复效果。

关 键 词:资料恢复   均一性   判别分析   回归分析
收稿时间:2003-01-02
修稿时间:2003-01-02

The Experimental Study of Reconstruction for Summer Precipitation and Temperature in China
Huang Jiayou. The Experimental Study of Reconstruction for Summer Precipitation and Temperature in China[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2004, 15(2): 200-206
Authors:Huang Jiayou
Affiliation:1.Department of Atmospheric Science , School of Physics , Peking University , Beijing 1008712.National Meteorological Center , China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081
Abstract:
The examination of reconstruction for missing data and homogeneity for summer precipitation and temperature in China was completed. The experimental study is on the reconstruction for missing data for the period of 1~5 years using stepwise regression and stepwise discrimination. It is found that the stepwise discrimination is better than the stepwise regression in the validity of the reconstruction. The experimental studies about different methods of discriminate group show that the discrimination based on Gamma distribution is better with a good validity. The discrimination selected nearly stations have a good validity than the stepwise discrimination with F value. The experimental results also show that the reconstruction for missing with the little error in the six areas in China on reconstruction using discrimination selected nearly stations.
Keywords:Data reconstruction Homogeneity Stepwise discrimination Stepwise regression
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