山东夏季降水与前期热带洋区OLR的关系及其预测

在确定山东涝夏和旱夏年份的基础上，利用ＮＯＡＡ卫星观测的ＯＬＲ月平均资料，分析热带对流活动在旱涝年的差异。发现涝夏年科春季热带西太平洋、印度洋多为负距平，旱夏年多为正距平，天负距平中心与热带大气活动中心对应。用热带４洋科、春季ＯＬＲ分别建立夏季降水预测模型，结果表明，４月热带西太平洋、印度洋模型预测能力较优。

The Relationship between OLR in Tropical Ocean Areas and Summer Rainfall in Shandong and Its Forecast

On the basis of the classification of rainy or dry summer,monthly OLR data,observed by NOAA satellite,were used to analyze the convective differences of rainy and dry summer.It is found that the negative anomaly is dominant in winter and spring before wet summer,while the positive anomaly is mainly appeared previous to dry summer in tropical ocean areas.Forecast models were established by using OLR in Jan.and Apr.in four tropical ocean areas,and the models based on Apr.OLR in the tropical west Pacific and the Indian Ocean show better ability of prediction.